A player with suited connectors seems to have 10.94% odds of flopping a flush draw. The same hand also has a 10.45% chance of hitting an open-ended 8-out straight draw. However, if you enjoy the math behind poker, you may wonder how these odds come to be.
You may want an explanation behind the odds of hitting a flush draw, a straight draw, or both. After all, you likely already know merely adding the two probabilities is not an option. Well, here’s what you need to know: the two have some but not a complete overlap. So this puts the odds between 11% and 22%.
However, we’re here to give you a deeper insight than that. So read on to understand how these calculations work!
Suited Connectors: Odds Of Flopping Straight Or Flush Draws
One simple trick is to add the flush that was likely left out of the straight odds calculation. Remember how straight flushes are usually eliminated from straight calculations since they’re considered different hands? This trick follows the same principle essentially.
Calculating A Flush Draw
Let’s consider an example to calculate a flush draw through combination. Say you have 50 cards remaining. Perhaps your goal is to have two sets of the same suit out of a total of three. That would mean you want a suit of 11 cards.
First, calculate the count of the other cards: 50 – 11 = 39.
11/2 then becomes your binomial coefficient. Remember that this is not a fraction.
4 flush (11/2)(39/1)/(50/3) = 0.1094
0.1094 = 8.1 : 1
Now, you perform a summation of flopping the whole flush 11/3.
That gives you 0.11765 = 7.5: 1
The above figure is likely one you see more often.
4 or 5 flush ((11/2)(39/1) + (11/3) - 4) / (50/3)
Here the (- 4) represents a straight flush.
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Calculating A Straight Draw
Now we come to the calculation or a straight draw. Straight off the bat, we must say that this is more complex.
For a 4-draw: Add the cards as a straight flush. Doing so will still make a straight instead of a flush, and vice-versa.
For a 5-draw: Subtract the straight-flush from either. You must do this as it is a different hand.
Let’s take the example of a straight or 8-outer straight draw.
The straight answer would be 0.1171 = 7.54: 1
Simply adding the straight calculation above leaves out the flush.
0.1171 + 0.11765 = 0.2344 = 3.27: 1
So essentially, the odds of a suited connector are 24.5: 1
Wrap Up
The simple takeaway here is to analyze whether you can get in with your suited connector at the right price. If the answer is yes, seeing a flop would be worthwhile!
